Thursday, June 15, 2006

What Should iran do With European Package?

(A view from tehran)
Ali ghannadi
Jun 13,2006
Nuclear iran--European Union foreign policy chief,javier Solana last Tuesday delivered EU3 incentive, critical package to Iran's Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Secretary ali larijani .
Although package have not formally published,one can guess it”s initial containments:
1-it”s present some rewards in economic,security and political areas for iran;
2-alternatively,iran should suspend all enrichment(industrial & research)activity in his own soil;
3-if iran refuse suspening,in response it would face sanctional regime in security council.
The EU3 package,also have two specifications:
1-all six world powers(UN permanent members plus germany)have agree on,for first
time;
2-US accepted to suspend some unilateral sanctions that exercised against iran from middle 1990s ,for first time.
So,there are essensial questions:what should we do with European package?should we
reject it?should we accept?or,there is third way?
If reject the package,we would suffer sanctions,alternatively if accept,to lose enrichment.
If we see enrichment as strategic goal,so we can not see EU3 package as
sterategic.realistically, what should we do?
There are moments in diplomacy that enemies have same tactical goals;presently,united states of America and Islamic republic of iran face the moment.
After failing for attracting 5+1 support for iran sanction in security council,US accepted EU3 incentive package in FMs summit in Vienna,last month. after that,Solana delivered the package to Tehran and white house position on iran softened.when white house spokesman McCormack Pressed on why (package)details were being kept secret, he said with amenity this was to give the Iranians time to respond without facing a public debate over the package.
even ,president bush shift his rhetoric saying: "I have said the United States will come and sit down at the table with them as long as they're willing to suspend their
enrichment in a verifiable way."
truly ,what is happening?is US changed its policy toward iran?it seems no.
in fact,US see EU3 package as tactical step toward shaping molti-polar unity against
Tehran.white house knows iran will rejecting European package and to this end it will gain big powers support for exercising sanctions.
In fact,US Iranian policy does not changed.;what we saw in last few weekens is tactical policy ,can be called:”low speak diplomacy”.if iran reject the package white house would say:“oh ,china,Russia,EU,see! We even low our voice and give rewards,but Tehran reject the incentive package…..so,go ahead toward sanctions.”What should iran do?
As same as US approach,we can accept Europian package, through suspending
enrichment provisionally(not permanently) and allow negotiations to begins.
definately,common agreement between big powers will broken throughout
negotianions.EU3 package is not so that US can simply accept. positively,US acceptance is tacticaly ,as noted;means security guarantee to iran is not thing that US simply can accept it in current Iranian governmental system.
If we begin negotiations,differencies between poles will emerge and again we can
separate between bejing-moscow and trans atlantic US-EU pillars.Additioanaly,if suspendenrichment provisionally and for little time ,we will escape amiss and united
sanctions. Again, at suitable moment(after polars separation) we can begin enrichment in our soil.
Current common agreement between 5+1 powers resault from an mixed European
diplomacy,but can broken throughout time.currently,we sould only in any way slur over European package through time management, tactical moves and even provivisionaly suspending enrichment.if irn reject European package,will face likely sanctions inside security council(unity between big powers) ,but if tactically accept the package,will face sanctions outside council(split between powers) ,even at worst situations .
posted by ali ghannadi-irannuk

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